The desk's working notes.
Single-claim essays. Each one carries its own thesis and ends where it lands. Numbers are sourced; opinions are signed. No price targets. No marketing language. If a piece does not earn 1,500 words, it does not get published.
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May 28, 2026Cameco and the uranium thesis — what the nuclear renaissance actually requires
The nuclear renaissance thesis is real. The demand side is as strong as it has been in forty years. But uranium investing is not just a demand story — it is a supply story, a contracting story, and a read on whether Kazatomprom will repeat 2022 or 2018. Cameco is the best-positioned operator, but the thesis has conditions.
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May 28, 2026The oil sands three — CNQ, Suncor, and Cenovus are not the same business
The three largest Canadian oil sands operators are often discussed as a group. They should not be. CNQ, Suncor, and Cenovus have different cost structures, different capital cultures, and different track records under pressure. The differences matter more than the similarities.
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May 28, 2026Enbridge vs TC Energy — two pipelines, two very different bets
Both carry hydrocarbons across North America. Both pay large dividends. But Enbridge and TC Energy are structurally different businesses with different risk profiles, different capital cultures, and different track records under pressure. The comparison is not close.
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May 14, 2026How to read a Canadian oil & gas operator in seven numbers
Seven numbers, in order. Sustaining capex per barrel, free-cash break-even, net debt at strip, per-share production, insider open-market buys, 2015 and 2020 dividend behaviour, ten-year reserve replacement at flat prices. Everything else is decoration.
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May 8, 2026The cost curve is a lie if you let them pick the quartile
Every operator claims first-quartile. The denominator is the game. We walk through how to test the claim with examples from gold, silver, uranium, and copper — and why one of those four sectors has it cleanest.
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Apr 30, 2026What 2015 and 2020 told us about every Canadian energy operator still standing
Two stress tests in a decade. Every Canadian energy operator's capital decisions in 2015 and 2020 are public. Some held the dividend in both; some issued equity at distressed prices; some did not exist by the end of either. The record reads cleanly if you put it on one page.
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Apr 23, 2026Pipelines are turnpikes, not commodity bets — reading Canadian infrastructure honestly
Owning Enbridge is not owning oil. Owning TC Energy is not owning gas. The contracted EBITDA share, the rate base, and the regulatory jurisdiction are the read. Commodity exposure on a Canadian pipeline operator is the thirty percent of the business the company would rather not discuss.
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Apr 16, 2026The uranium operator's checklist: separating the mines from the narratives
Uranium has been a narrative commodity for two decades and an operator commodity for about three years. The checklist for reading a uranium business is shorter than the average pitch deck — six questions, four of which most uranium names fail.
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Apr 9, 2026Silver's per-share problem: why production growth isn't shareholder value
Most senior silver producers have grown absolute ounces meaningfully over the past decade and destroyed per-share value while doing it. The arithmetic is mechanical. The reason it persists is incentive design.
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Apr 2, 2026The dividend that survived: 26 consecutive raises at Canadian Natural
Twenty-six consecutive years of dividend increases at Canadian Natural Resources, including raises in 2015 and in March 2020. The record is a capital-allocation document, not a dividend story. We read it for what the operator does at the bottom.
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Mar 26, 2026Insider buying vs. insider granting — the only signal that costs the operator something
Options grants are loyalty to a quarter. Open-market purchases are loyalty to a decade. The difference is the only insider signal that costs the operator something. The signal is public. Most decks do not put it on the cover.
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Mar 21, 2026What boring looks like on a thirty-year chart: the case for Canadian infrastructure compounding
A 6% earnings compounder, a 4% dividend yield, no glamour, and thirty consecutive years of raises. The math is unspectacular. The total-return chart is not. The Canadian infrastructure cohort is the boring half of the desk, and it is the half that pays for the wait.
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Mar 21, 2026ROIC on incremental capital, in plain English
Reported ROE and reported ROIC are average metrics across the whole asset base. The number that matters is what the next dollar of capital earns. The math is not difficult. The reason most operators do not report it is that the answer is sometimes ugly.
All notes are reviewed by the principal before publication. Cross-links to research pages and the coverage universe point to the operator data behind each claim. Subscribe to the Halvren letter for the quarterly synthesis.