Halvren Notes https://halvrencapital.com/notes Single-claim essays from the Halvren Capital research desk on operator quality, cost curves, capital culture, and the framework. en-CA Thu, 28 May 2026 22:03:30 +0000 How to read a Canadian oil & gas operator in seven numbers https://halvrencapital.com/notes/how-to-read-canadian-oil-gas-operator-seven-numbers https://halvrencapital.com/notes/how-to-read-canadian-oil-gas-operator-seven-numbers Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Seven metrics in order: sustaining capex per barrel, free-cash break-even, net debt at strip, per-share growth, insider buys, prior-cycle dividends, replacement. The cost curve is a lie if you let them pick the quartile https://halvrencapital.com/notes/cost-curve-is-a-lie-if-you-pick-the-quartile https://halvrencapital.com/notes/cost-curve-is-a-lie-if-you-pick-the-quartile Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Every operator claims first-quartile. The denominator decides. Three questions to test the claim, with examples from gold, silver, uranium, and copper. What 2015 and 2020 told us about every Canadian energy operator still standing https://halvrencapital.com/notes/what-2015-and-2020-told-us-canadian-energy https://halvrencapital.com/notes/what-2015-and-2020-told-us-canadian-energy Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Two stress tests sorted Canadian energy operators into four buckets. The 2015 and 2020 records are public. The cohort splits the same way in 2026. Pipelines are turnpikes, not commodity bets — reading Canadian infrastructure honestly https://halvrencapital.com/notes/pipelines-are-turnpikes-not-commodity-bets https://halvrencapital.com/notes/pipelines-are-turnpikes-not-commodity-bets Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Canadian and US pipeline operators earn from contracted rate base, not the commodity tape. The contracted share is the moat. Capital discipline is the rest. The uranium operator's checklist: separating the mines from the narratives https://halvrencapital.com/notes/uranium-operator-checklist https://halvrencapital.com/notes/uranium-operator-checklist Thu, 16 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Six questions separate uranium producers from developers and narratives from mines. Most uranium names fail the first four. The remaining list is short. Silver's per-share problem: why production growth isn't shareholder value https://halvrencapital.com/notes/silver-per-share-problem https://halvrencapital.com/notes/silver-per-share-problem Thu, 09 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Most senior silver producers grow absolute ounces and destroy per-share value while doing it. The arithmetic is in the proxy. The streamer model is the workaround. The dividend that survived: 26 consecutive raises at Canadian Natural https://halvrencapital.com/notes/dividend-that-survived-cnq https://halvrencapital.com/notes/dividend-that-survived-cnq Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Twenty-six consecutive years of dividend raises at Canadian Natural, through 2015 and 2020. The record is a capital-allocation document, not a dividend story. Insider buying vs. insider granting — the only signal that costs the operator something https://halvrencapital.com/notes/insider-buying-vs-granting https://halvrencapital.com/notes/insider-buying-vs-granting Thu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Options are loyalty to a quarter; open-market purchases are loyalty to a decade. The only insider signal that costs the executive real money, read carefully. What boring looks like on a thirty-year chart: the case for Canadian infrastructure compounding https://halvrencapital.com/notes/boring-thirty-year-chart-canadian-infrastructure https://halvrencapital.com/notes/boring-thirty-year-chart-canadian-infrastructure Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) A 6% earnings compounder plus a 4% dividend yield for thirty years. Canadian infrastructure is the boring half of the desk, and the half that pays for the wait. ROIC on incremental capital, in plain English https://halvrencapital.com/notes/roic-incremental-capital-plain-english https://halvrencapital.com/notes/roic-incremental-capital-plain-english Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000 amirali@halvrencapital.com (Amirali Karimi) Marginal ROIC, not average ROIC, is what the next dollar earns. The math is mechanical. Most operators do not publish it because the answer is uncomfortable.